Realistic Assessment

Everyone has asked me what time will I run in the Boston marathon, and I have asked myself that same question many times. Now its only 5 days away I can probably make a realistic assessment.

I have completed six regulation length road marathons. My record has been as follows:
Sydney 2004 3.36
Canberra 2005 3.15
Sydney 2005 3.16
Hobart 2006 3.10
Canberra 2006 3.12
Gold Coast 2006 3.10

As you can see I have met a significant barrier at 3.10. So what might have changed for this one. first of all I am lighter. I am down to 69kg. Secondly I have been attending the SWEAT sessions twice weekly and have followed the SWEAT program that Sean Williams wrote for me. I have also added between 100 and 200 situps per day and twice weekly spin classes.

On the down side I have had the flu, and the course is hilly.
Looking at the splits below for my last marathon you will see that I held a constant pace till the half way mark and then gradually slowed down. After that Marathon I felt fresh and suffered hardly any fatigue or leg pain, so I know I could have gone faster if I had the mental strength.

I think I can run at least as fast as my last marathon the difference will be mostly mental I think. To run 3hr 5min will require me to hold each of the last 21km 14 secs faster per km, and to run in 3hr even I need to run the last 21k 28 secs faster per km.

Now that doesn't sound like much but it equates to beating myself by a distance of about 2.3km at the finish.

The next few days will be telling. If I can get a good restful lead up I am confident of improving to hopefully 3.05 pace.